2021-05-04

巴菲特談通脹

　　上周巴菲特的巴郡有股東會，巴菲特談了通脹。上周美財長耶倫也談了通脹，兩人觀點大不相同。

　　耶倫認為美通脹不足慮，因為拜登政府的撐經濟的建屋及基建大計，是分10年執行。記住，是10年內執行，到文末時再談。

旗下公司產品成本大漲

　　巴菲特在股東會上講通脹則憂心忡忡，他的憂心是他旗下公司產品的成本漲又漲，於是他的公司加價，加價又加價，消費者仍不斷地買，即是成本可轉嫁予消費者。此即物品價是加硬了，不會減下來，由此而產生的通脹，不會是「酒肉(通脹)穿腸過，而是必然體內留」，這跟耶倫講的今時美通脹是「transitory」暫時性，大相逕庭。

(iStock)

　　耶倫講的transitory，是口噏噏，無理論無數據，你信便信，巴菲特呢?他以他公司的原料成本和產品售價來印證，巴菲特投資於全美不少企業，他們看這些生產成本與產品售價是天天看，不是如官員們的每一個月或每兩個月才看一次。官員看數據，是很客觀的，因為數據好壞，不影響官員們出糧額；巴菲特看數據是很主觀的(因為必然肉緊)，數據好壞，影響到公司盈利，巴郡的派息，以及這位老人家幾十年的「投資高手」的面子。以下是巴菲特講通脹的原話，你可以看到他有幾肉緊，亦可以看到一個嚴謹的投資者是怎管理公司。如果你無意去多認識巴菲特投資不敗之道，就不用看了。

　　為甚麼美國消費者可以接受加價?因為今時有三分一的美國消費者都接受了美政府的慷慨派錢救濟，讓美國人的銀行「儲蓄」幾達到2萬億美元，有錢便可花唄。

　　美國政府的CPI數據亦可以呃人，因為廠家會不加價，但減包裝貨的貨量，如Costco所賣的paper towels，其新包裝價不變，但較舊包裝少了20張，此即已變相加價14.28%。

　　呀!文末了，談談拜登的基建大計，要建足十年，而今時仍未開始。基建要鋼鐵嗎?定要，但今時鋼鐵期價已在一年內，貴了4倍，到拜登基建開工時，鋼鐵價將如何?鋼鐵價一漲，車、機械、大廈、船，其建造成本能不貴?這類通脹會是transitory?

　　美儲局的招牌動作是，到通脹殺到埋身，才叫漲呀!一再建議各位，自己執生，不要等美儲局的警報，一定是遲的。

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巴菲特談通脹原話

　　We're seeing very substantial inflation - it's very interesting. I mean, we're raising prices. People are raising prices to us. And it's being accepted. Take home-building. I mean, you know, the cost of--we've got nine home builders in addition to our manufactured housing operation, which is the largest in the country.

　　So we really do a lot of housing. The costs are just up, up, up. Steel costs, you know, just every day, they're going up. And there hasn't yet been because the wage--the wage stuff follows. I mean, the--the UAW writes a three-year contract, we got a three-year contract.

　　But if you're buying steel at General Motors or someplace, you're paying more every day. So it's an economy, really--it's red hot. I mean, and we weren't expecting it. I mean, all our companies, when they thought when they were allowed to go back to work at, well, various operations, we closed the furniture stores, I mentioned.

　　You know, they were closed for six weeks or so on average. And they didn't know what was going to happen when they opened. And they can't stop people from buying things. And we can't deliver them. They say, well, that's OK because nobody else can deliver them either, and we'll wait for three months or something of the sort.

　　The backlog grows, and then we thought it would end when the $600--the payments ended, and I think around August of last year, it just kept going. And it keeps going and it keeps going and it keeps going. And I get the figures. Every week, we go over, day by day, what happened at the three different stores in Chicago and Kansas City and Dallas.

　　And it just won't stop. People have money in their pocket, and they pay the higher prices. And when corporate prices go up in a month or two--and that was the price increase for April 1--our costs are going up, supply chain's all screwed up for all kinds of people. But it's a buy--it's almost a buying frenzy, except certain areas, you can't buy at.

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麗珠醫藥績佳上望40至43元

　　昨在《午市閒談》視頻中，筆者推介了麗珠醫藥(01513)。麗珠醫藥在內地從事開發、生產及銷售醫藥產品。

　　麗珠醫藥昨收報36.45元，僅升0.41%，在醫藥類各報升股中升幅最小，負債比率也最低，市盈率16.59倍，周息率4.10%。

首季及去年純利均升逾3成

　　麗珠醫藥日前公布首季純利約5.19億元(人民幣.下同)，按年增約30.12%，每股盈利56分；扣除非經常性損益的純利，則按年增約20.55%。

　　集團盈利上升乃受惠於營收按年增33.74%，其他收益則因期內政府補貼增加，升約3.77倍。

　　除今年首季純利好之外，麗珠醫藥去年全年純利亦按年升31.63%，並派末期息每股1.25元。

研發疫苗獲准臨床試驗

　　此外，今年3月下旬，麗珠醫藥公布旗下「麗珠單抗」研發的新冠疫苗獲得國家藥監局簽發藥物臨床試驗批件。同月，集團宣布收購主要從事研發、生產及銷售中成藥的天津同仁堂集團4成股本。

　　不過，縱有以上較利好的消息，昨天麗珠醫藥股價卻不太升，讀者不妨從這角度看:公司業績好而股價不升，是否可被視為值得吸納?

　　業績好一定值得留意，但麗珠醫藥可能是隻「莫趁低撈，宜趁高追」的股份，因為等車開，不如等車開後才追車，這股要升上昨早高位36(港元，下同)以上才望好。策略上，投資者可候36.5元吸納，短期阻力37.5元，目標看40至43元；短期支持34.5元，止蝕34元。