預示2030年

　　預想未來激發當下的行為。我們在學校努力學習是為了避過失敗的結果；我們奮力爬上事業階梯的頂端是為求回報。我經常強調「錯誤的態度」是不找終生伴侶的單身一族的最大障礙。或者，窺看15年後的今天會有助大家以對的角度來看待事情。

 

　　2030年的世界將會是這樣的……

 

　　中國的人口達14億，美國有3億5千萬人，歐洲則有7.36億人。中國的國內生產總值將達40.4兆美元，遠超於美國的30.9兆美元，更不用說那33兆美元的龐大國債。86%的美國人口將面對痴肥的問題，使他們成為經濟合作暨發展組織(OECD)的34個國家中最胖的一個。法國人口中的四成人將會成為伊斯蘭教徒，間接令到德文成為繼普通話及英文後全球第三種最重要的商業語言。

 

　　為維持歐洲在國際間的競爭力，歐盟透過Horizon 2020 及Innovation Union兩個計劃，於2014年至2020年期間投入800億歐元於科研及創新項目上。中國在科研上的支出將超過歐洲及美國兩國相加的總額，項目將專注於化學、電腦學、環境科學、醫學、藥理 / 製藥 / 毒理學、物理及天文學六方面。「電腦」再不是我們以硬件而定的狹義，正如Tesla的口號所言「我們不是一輛汽車，而是一部有四個輪胎的電腦」。在微機電系統 (MEMS)出現後，器材的設計愈漸微細，因此可被裝配至任何地方之上，譬如我們的衣服、飾物，甚至是隱形眼鏡，完全隱藏在我們的四周之中。有人覺得具有權威的征服感，但同時有人感到被冒犯。

 

　　“Vactrains” 是在真空管道運行的磁懸浮列車。管道內的空氣阻壓小，列車用上非常少量的能源便可在極高速下運行。在2至3年內，“Vactrains”便達到時速600至1000公里；在2030年前，“Vactrains”將提升至時速4000至5000公里，或是以在海平面時的音速的5至6倍運行。這個系統的一個亮點是“Soft Thunder”－ 永遠不會停站的列車，為何？由廣州至上海之間有30個車站，每5分鐘1個，這代表單是停站乘客需花上2.5小時一程，來回則要花上5小時。如果把可移動的車站鎖定在列車的側面，兩者以相同的速度運行以供乘客下車，再回程至總站，可以想像到這將省去大量的時間。除了無人駕駛汽車與飛機，光啟科學所研製的馬丁飛行噴射包是太空船的實現。裝備運作至今，可飛至1500米的高空，每小時35英里，可承載120公斤，此設計將向滿載驚喜的未來邁進。

 

　　3D打印技術將改變顧客的消費習慣及我們的生活方式。試想像手袋及鞋均能夠被打印出來，很多工作崗位會被淘汰，同時有新的崗位誕生。人類每年消耗的肉量達2400億公斤，打印肉類可消除饑餓；打印器官可延長人類的壽命；打印槍械，每個人都掌握生殺大權。

 

　　配備3D顯示及投影技術後，透過高清電視影像診斷、做手術，以及為自己開藥不再是天荒夜談。集合面容辨識、社交媒體及擴充實景三大方面下，網上約會體驗變得實在，更好更相配的良緣由此而來。

 

　　最後，在2030年前，機械人科技的發展將創新猷。先由微軟的Office小幫手開始，跟著有蘋果的Siri，這些機器將在一系列關於身體及認知的領域上超越人類。機器被輸入人工智能後，不需薪酬，任勞任怨地處理家中雜務，並在辨公室不眠不休地持續工作。它們可以建橋起大廈，亦可以摧毀這些建築物。它們可以取代士兵上陣殺敵，成為軍備競賽的一部分。

 

　　科技能夠並將會把機械人變得非常「真實」，它們在外表、行動、談吐、感覺、行為上與人類相似，有能力在身體及情緒上滿足人類的所有需求。最後，科技將製造出「完美」的機械人，相比之下，一個有太多的缺點的真人會被視為難以共同生活的對象。

 

　　想想吧。

 

　　（按：中文內容乃翻譯及撮寫版本）

 

The Year 2030

 

　　Anticipation of the future motivates behavior of the present – We study hard in school because we shun the consequences of failure. We work hard to go up the career ladder because we like the reward… I always maintain that the one biggest deterrent for singles not finding life partners is “wrong attitude”… Perhaps a glimpse of 15 years into the future may help to put things in perspective.

 

　　The world in 2030 will looking something like this:

 

　　China’s population will reach 1.4 billion, with 350 million in the States and 736 million in  Europe. China’s US$40.4 trillion GDP will have significantly surpassed America’s US$30.9, not to mention their staggering national debt of US$33 trillion. 86% of the US population will be overweight, making them the fattest of  OECD’s 34 countries. 40% of the French population will be Muslims, indirectly making German the third most important business language after Putonghua and English.

 

　　Through Horizon 2020 and Innovation Union, the EU will be spending € 80 billion just between 2014-2020 on Scientific Research and Innovation Programs to secure Europe’s global competitiveness. China’s scientific expenditure shall exceed that of Europe’s and America’s combined, focusing in six areas: Chemistry, Computer Science, Environmental Science, Medicine, Pharmacology/ Pharmaceuticals / Toxicology, Physics & Astronomy. The word “Computer”  no longer confines to the hardware we know …As the Tesla slogan goes, “ We are NOT a car, we are a computer on 4 wheels”… Devices are getting steadily smaller owing to micro electro mechanical systems (MEMS). Hence, they can and will be embedded everywhere - in our clothes, accessories, even in contact lens, absorbed into our surroundings and completely invisible. One may feel empowered as another may feel violated.  

 

　　“Vactrains” are maglev trains running through evacuated (air-less)tunnels. The lack of air resistance permits trains to move at extremely high speed using very little power. Vactrains travelling at 600-1,000kph will be introduced in 2-3 years, and those up to 4000 – 5000 mph or 5-6 times the speed of sound at sea level will be in operation by 2030. Then there is “Soft Thunder” - the train that never stops. Why? There are 30 stops between Guangzhou and Shanghai, at 5 minutes each, the traveler loses 2.5 hours one way and 5 hours return. If a moving station can lock onto the side of the train at synchronized speed to allow for passenger disembarkation, and then returns to master station, imagine the substantial time save. Apart from driverless cars & drones, Kuang Chi’s Martin Jetpack is the spaceship coming true. Already in operation today, it’s flying at an altitude of 1500m, 35 mph, with a load of 120 Kg.. towards an amazing future.

 

　　3 Dimensional printing will change consumer habits and our way of life. Imagine handbags and shoes can be printed, many jobs will be lost, different ones will be created. Humans consume 240 billion kilograms of meat each year, with the printing of meat, hunger will be eradicated; with the printing of organs, life expectancy prolonged; With the printing of handguns, everyone can kill. 

 

　　With 3D display and projection technologies, tele-medical consultations, tele- surgery and self prescribed medicine will become possible. With a mixture of face recognition, social media, augmented reality, online dating experience will become tangible, enabling better and more customized matches.

 

　　Finally, by 2030, robotics will be reaching new heights. Microsoft started with Clippy, Apple followed with Siri…and these machines will exceed human capacities across a number of physical and cognitive domains. Programmed with artificial intelligence, they can perform all sorts of household chores and office tasks 24/7 without salary and without complaint. They can construct bridges and buildings, they can also destroy them. They can replace soldiers, fight wars, annihilate our enemies and be developed as part of a pending arm’s race.

 

　　Technology can and will make robots so “real” that they will look, act, talk, feel, behave just like humans, capable of satisfying all human needs including physical and emotional ones. Finally, technology will make robots so “perfect” that a real person with many  real shortcomings is deemed unbearable to share a life with.

 

　　Think about it.

 

 

 《經濟通》所刊的署名及／或不署名文章，相關內容屬作者個人意見，並不代表《經濟通》立場，《經濟通》所扮演的角色是提供一個自由言論平台。

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