05/01/2018
美儲局的風向
2018年1月3日,美儲局公布了12月貨幣會議紀要,市場似乎因耶倫離任,而少予關注,但應該嗎?筆者認為不應該,因為12月議息會紀要,是要由下任美儲局長鮑威爾定稿的,風向標如何了?
(1)加快升息步伐可能:
委員們討論了一些風險,若這些風險變成現實,則可能需要更快的加息步伐。這些風險包括,由於財政刺激或寬鬆的金融市場等因素,導致經濟增速遠遠超過其最大可持續水平,引起通脹壓力過度積累的可能性。
(2)稅改對經濟提振力度存不確定性:
許多委員預計,減稅將為消費開支提供一些促進。企業稅下調,可能會對資本支出提供適度的提振,但影響的程度還不確定。此外,許多委員認為,由於稅改將刺激通脹快速提升,可以支持加快加息。原文是:Many participants judged that the proposed changes in business taxes, if enacted, would likely provide a modest boost to capital spending, although the magnitude of the effects was uncertain. The resulting increase in the capital stock could contribute to positive supply-side effects, including an expansion of potential output over the next few years. However, some business contacts and respondents to business surveys suggested that firms were cautious about expanding capital spending in response to the proposed tax changes or noted that the increase in cash flow that would result from corporate tax cuts was more likely to be used for mergers and acquisitions or for debt reduction and stock buybacks.
通脹料漸升到2%目標
(3)通脹前景仍不明朗:
關於通貨膨脹,委員們普遍認為通脹中期前景幾無變化,但仍預計通脹將逐漸回升到美儲局2%的目標。如果通貨膨脹率未能升向2%的目標,則加息步伐可能會放緩。許多委員還預計,緊俏的勞動力市場相關的周期性壓力將在中期內體現為更高的通貨膨脹。
此外,一些委員擔心,通脹持續疲軟可能已經導致更長期通脹預期下降。他們指出,基於市場的通脹補償指標較低,一些通脹預期調查指標下降,或統計模型的證據顯示通貨膨脹的潛在趨勢近年來已經下降。
由於持續達不到美儲局2%的通脹目標,一些委員認為,對可能的貨幣政策替代框架進行進一步研究可能是有用的,例如價格水平目標或名義國內生產總值目標。委員們還討論了可能導致聯邦基金利率在中期內更平坦軌迹的風險,包括實際或預期的通貨膨脹未能達到委員會的2%目標。
(4)收益率曲線扁平化:
委員們普遍認為,以歷史標準衡量,收益率曲線目前的平坦程度並不異常。繼續監測收益率曲線的斜率是非常重要的。
(5)資產估值過高風險:
鑑於高企的資產估值水平和低迷的金融市場波動,有兩位委員對此表示擔憂,高度寬鬆的金融環境若持續下去,未來會對金融穩定構成風險。
傳統經濟學失去功用?
市場對這份會議紀要作出甚麼反應?看圖一、二。
美匯升、金跌,因為市場預期加息速度或加快,而3月份加息機會率由66%升至73%(圖三)。
自2017年12月美國加息以來,美股美息未見太受壓(圖四),這就使部分委員擔心,金融泡沫仍未見受壓,他們不安心,這是美儲局議息會上少談的項目,今次談了,原文是:In light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, a couple of participants expressed concern that the persistence of highly accommodative financial conditions could, over time, pose risks to financial stability.
美儲局將會怎樣做去撇泡沫?
一個可能的方法是,美儲局可能將加息看通脹改為加息看物價水平(price-level targeting)或GDP targeting,在12月的會議上是談過的,原文是:Due to the persistent shortfall of inflation from the Committee's 2 percent objective, or the risk that monetary policy could again become constrained by the zero lower bound, a few participants suggested that further study of potential alternative frameworks for the conduct of monetary policy such as price-level targeting or nominal GDP targeting could be useful.
以前經濟預期會視rate inversion(短息高於長息)為衰退之兆,但今次議息會認為不足為慮,原文這樣講:A couple of other participants viewed the flattening of the yield curve as an expected consequence of increases in the Committee's target range for the federal funds rate, and judged that a yield curve inversion under such circumstances would not necessarily foreshadow or cause an economic downturn. It was also noted that contacts in the financial sector generally did not express concern about the recent flattening of the term structure.
甚麼才是衰退之兆,沒有了,可能要等水浸過眼眉才知啩,此一再反映,傳統經濟學有點不好用了。
轉載自: 晴報
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